Draft Metrics: Reviewing the 2011 Draft Day Trades
By: Tony Villiotti
May 2, 2011
It's always fun to talk about draft day trade-ups even though the outcome is really unknown until several years afterwards, when there is a better sense of the careers of the players involved. With that caveat, though, Draft Metrics reviewed this year's trades with great interest. Due to the labor situation all
trades had to be "draft choice for draft choice", but transactions where a team moves up in the draft typically did not include any veteran players anyway.
By Draft Metrics' count, there were 22 trade-ups during the draft. The following table shows how this compares to the level of trades in recent years (lowest of the five years). The trades are summarized by year and by round. As you can see, the number of trade-ups jumps around from year-to-year and the number of 2011 trades was low, but not crazy low.
23 NFL teams were part of the 2011 trades, led by the Redskins (participated in 5 trades), the Eagles (4) and the Patriots (4). The nine teams that weren't part of any trade-ups were the Bengals, the Bills, the Cardinals, the Chargers, the Cowboys, the Giants, the Panthers, the Steelers and the Titans.
Each of the 22 trades are listed below and the listing shows the teams involved, the draft choices involved, the number of points per the NFL Trade Value Chart and the number of equivalent five-year starters expected per Draft Metrics' historical data.
The Chart was developed under the direction of Jimmy Johnson while he was with the Cowboys and assigns points to each pick (e.g., #1 pick is worth 3000 points, #2 pick is worth 2600 points, #100 pick is worth 100 points, #200 points is worth 12.4 points). Draft Metrics will not discuss the merits of the Chart in this article, but it does bring structure to the trading of draft choices and it is used by many of the NFL teams.
The concept of "equivalent five-year starters" is based on the historical information developed by Draft Metrics and is best explained by use of an example. A player chosen with selections 1 through 13 has, historically, a 74% chance of becoming a five-year starter. Therefore, such a draft choice is the equivalent of obtaining .74 five-year starters.
Before presenting the trade listing, Draft Metrics wants to focus on several trade highlights.
Give the Redskins the 2011 Wheeler/Dealer Award
The Redskins participated in five of the 22 trades and turned the 10th draft selection and the 144th draft selection into the 16th, 79th, 105th, 146th, 178th and 217th choices. The Chart would indicate this exchange is about even (1344 points surrendered and 1339 points received). If you look at it from the perspective of five-year equivalent starters, though, the Redskins came out ahead, surrendering 0.83 five-year equivalent starters and receiving 1.22 equivalent five-year starters in return.
Who Had the Advantage in the Browns/Falcons First Round Trade?
The first trade of the day got things off to a booming start as the Falcons moved up 21 spots in a trade with the Browns so they could draft Julio Jones. The Browns received the Falcons 1st and 4th round choices in both 2011 and 2012 and their 2nd round in 2011. The fact that 2012 choices are involved makes this trade difficult to evaluate but Draft Metrics made the assumption that the Falcons would have the same draft position in 2012 that it had in 2011. With that assumption, the Browns had a significant advantage in both points and five-year equivalent starters. Draft Metrics opinion is that this is clear win for the Browns prevailed in this one, especially with the risk inherent in drafting a wide receiver.
Acquiring 2012 Draft Choices
There were four trades that resulted in acquiring 2012 draft choices. This is always a little bit of a crap shoot because a team doesn't know the exact pick they are acquiring, just the round. It seems to Draft Metrics, though, that there is an advantage to the patient team who can afford to defer a draft choice to the following year. Not surprisingly, the Patriots were involved in two of the four trades. In the first trade they surrendered a late first round 2011 choice to the Saints and got back a late second round choice and a first round choice next year. In the second trade, they sent late third and fourth round 2011 choices to the Raiders in exchange for a second round 2012 pick and a 2011 seventh round pick. It would seem like the Patriots made out quite well in those deals. Of course, the Patriots were in a unique position with a surplus of 2011 choices plus already having a contending team.
Next is a listing of all the trades. The listing is largely self-explanatory and is intended to compare the consideration received and provided in each trade plus an evaluation using both the Chart and the "five-years equivalent starters" methodology.
Can't We Just Be Friends?
The Patriots and Eagles swapped the 193rd and 194th selections with no additional consideration given. So what was the point of this again?
Teams Round Year Pick Selection Pos School Chart 5-Year
Browns Get: 1st 2011 27 --Traded to Kansas City Chiefs (link) 680 0.56
  2nd 2011 59 Greg Little WR North Carolina 310 0.33
  4th 2011 124 Owen Marecic FB Stanford 48 0.09
  1st 2012 27P       680 0.56
  4th 2012 124P       48 0.09
              1766 1.63
Falcons Get: 1st 2011 6 Julio Jones WR Alabama 1600 0.74
Jaguars Get: 1st 2011 10 Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri 1300 0.74
Redskins Get: 1st 2011 16 Ryan Kerrigan LB Purdue 1000 0.56
  2nd 2011 49 --Traded to Indianapolis Colts (link) 410 0.33
              1410 0.89
Browns Get: 1st 2011 21 Phil Taylor DT Baylor 800 0.56
Chiefs Get: 1st 2011 27 Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh 680 0.56
  3rd 2011 70 Justin Houston DE Georgia 240 0.33
              920 0.89
Saints Get: 1st 2011 28 Mark Ingram RB Alabama 660 0.56
Patriots Get: 2nd 2011 56 Shane Vereen RB California 340 0.33
  1st 2012 24P       740 0.56
              1080 0.89
49ers Get: 2nd 2011 36 Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada 540 0.48
Broncos Get: 2nd 2011 45 Rahim Moore S UCLA 450 0.48
  4th 2011 108 Quinton Carter S Oklahoma 78 0.21
  5th 2011 141 --Traded to Green Bay Packers (link) 35.5 0.09
              563.5 0.78
Colts Get: 2nd 2011 49 Benjamin Ijalana OG Villanova 410 0.33
Redskins Get: 2nd 2011 53 --Traded to Chicago Bears (link) 370 0.33
  5th 2011 152 --Traded to Houston Texans (link) 31.8 0.09
              401.8 0.42
Bears Get: 2nd 2011 53 Stephen Paea DT Oregon State 370 0.33
Redskins Get: 2nd 2011 62 --Traded to Miami Dolphins (link) 284 0.33
  4th 2011 127 --Traded to Houston Texans (link) 45 0.09
              329 0.42
Lions Get: 2nd 2011 57 Mikel Leshoure RB Illinois 330 0.33
  5th 2011 157 Doug Hogue LB Syracuse 29.6 0.09
  7th 2011 209 Johnny Culbreath OT South Carolina State 8.8 0.06
              368.4 0.48
Seahawks Get: 3rd 2011 75 John Moffitt OG Wisconsin 215 0.21
  4th 2011 107 Kris Durham WR Georgia 80 0.21
  5th 2011 154 Richard Sherman CB Stanford 30.8 0.09
  7th 2011 205 Lazarius Levingston DE LSU 10.4 0.06
              336.2 0.57
Texans Get: 2nd 2011 60 Brandon Harris CB Miami (FL) 300 0.33
Patriots Get: 3rd 2011 73 Stevan Ridley RB LSU 225 0.33
  5th 2011 138 Marcus Cannon OG TCU 37 0.09
              262 0.42
Dolphins Get: 2nd 2011 62 Daniel Thomas RB Kansas State 284 0.33
Redskins Get: 3rd 2011 79 Leonard Hankerson WR Miami (FL) 195 0.21
  5th 2011 146 Dejon Gomes S Nebraska 33 0.09
  7th 2011 217 Maurice Hurt OT Florida 5.6 0.06
              233.6 0.36
Jaguars Get: 3rd 2011 76 Will Rackley OG Lehigh 210 0.21
49ers Get: 3rd 2011 80 Chris Culliver CB South Carolina 190 0.21
  6th 2011 182 Ronald Johnson WR USC 19.6 0.09
              209.6 0.30
Raiders Get: 3rd 2011 92 Joseph Barksdale OT LSU 132 0.21
  4th 2011 125 Taiwan Jones RB Eastern Washington 47 0.09
              179 0.30
Patriots Get: 7th 2011 219 Malcolm Williams CB TCU 4.8 0.06
  2nd 2012 48P       420 0.48
              424.8 0.54
Ravens Get: 3rd 2011 85 Jah Reid OT Central Florida 165 0.21
Eagles Get: 3rd 2011 90 Curtis Marsh CB Utah State 140 0.21
  6th 2011 191 Jason Kelce C Cincinnati 16 0.09
              156 0.30
Bucs Get: 4th 2011 104 Luke Stocker TE Tennessee 86 0.21
Eagles Get: 4th 2011 116 Casey Matthews LB Oregon 62 0.09
  4th 2012 116P       62 0.09
              124 0.18
Redskins Get: 4th 2011 105 Roy Helu RB Nebraska 84 0.21
  6th 2011 178 Aldrick Robinson WR SMU 21.2 0.09
              105.2 0.30
Texans Get: 4th 2011 127 Rashad Carmichael CB Virginia Tech 45 0.09
  5th 2011 144 Shiloh Keo S Idaho 34 0.09
  6th 2011 152 T.J. Yates QB North Carolina 31.8 0.09
              110.8 0.27
Broncos Get: 4th 2011 129 Julius Thomas TE Portland State 43 0.09
  7th 2011 204 Virgil Green TE Nevada 10.8 0.06
              53.8 0.15
Packers Get: 5th 2011 141 D.J. Williams TE Arkansas 35.5 0.09
  6th 2011 186 D.J. Smith LB Appalachian State 18 0.09
              53.5 0.18
Falcons Get: 5th 2011 145 Jacquizz Rodgers RB Oregon State 33.5 0.09
Rams Get: 5th 2011 158 Jermale Hines S Ohio State 29.2 0.09
  7th 2011 229 Jonathan Nelson CB Oklahoma 2.5 0.06
              31.7 0.15
Browns Get: 5th 2011 150 Jason Pinkston OG Pittsburgh 31.4 0.09
Vikings Get: 6th 2011 168 DeMarcus Love OG Arkansas 25.2 0.09
  6th 2011 170 Mistral Raymond S South Florida 24.4 0.09
              49.6 0.18
Jets Get: 5th 2011 153 Jeremy Kerley WR TCU 31.2 0.09
  7th 2011 227 Scotty McKnight WR Colorado 2.7 0.06
              33.9 0.15
Eagles Get: 5th 2011 161 Julian Vandervelde OG Iowa 28 0.09
  6th 2011 194 --Traded to New England Patriots (link) 14.8 0.09
              42.8 0.18
49ers Get: 5th 2011 163 Daniel Kilgore OG Appalachian State 27.2 0.09
Packers Get: 6th 2011 174 --Traded to Miami Dolphins (link) 22.8 0.09
  7th 2011 231 --Traded to Miami Dolphins (link) 2.3 0.06
              25.1 0.15
Eagles Get: 6th 2011 193 Brian Rolle LB Ohio State 15.2 0.09
Patriots Get: 6th 2011 194 Markell Carter LB Central Arkansas 14.8 0.09
Dolphins Get: 6th 2011 174 Charles Clay FB Tulsa 22.8 0.09
  7th 2011 231 Frank Kearse DT Alabama A&M; 2.3 0.06
              25.1 0.15
Packers Get: 6th 2011 179 Caleb Schlauderaff OG Utah 20.8 0.09
  7th 2011 218 Ryan Taylor TE North Carolina 5.2 0.06
              26.0 0.15
Note: This article was originally published on Tony Villiotti's website, DraftMetrics.com and is being reprinted here with the permission of the author. Draft Metrics was established in 2010 but its roots were planted long before. Villiotti's obsession with the NFL Draft began in 1969. Over the years, his interest shifted from predicting draft choices to trying to better understand the draft's importance by examining its eventual outcomes.
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