| Draft Metrics: The Draft Pipeline |
| By: Tony Villiotti |
| December 11, 2010 |
As has been well established in earlier Draft Metrics articles, the draft is the principal entry point into the NFL for college players. In this article, Draft Metrics identified the source of NFL draftees over a 20-year period (from the
1991 draft through the 2010 draft). Please note that this article is focused only on players drafted, not the success of those draftees. That issue will be addressed in a future article.
Over 300 colleges had players drafted during the study period. For purposes of this analysis, those 300 colleges were divided into four categories: Colleges that are in BCS conferences whose winner automatically qualifies for the Bowl Championship Series (BCSAQ) which includes the ACC, the Big 10, the Big 12, the Big East, the PAC 10 and the SEC --- Colleges that are in the other Bowl Championship Series conferences (BCSO)
including Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference --- Colleges that are in conferences that are part of the Football Championship Series (FCS), formerly known as Division I-AA schools --- All other colleges.
This categorization was based on the 2010 conference membership of each college. Miami (FL), for example, is included in the ACC for the entire period even though it was a Big East member for part of the period.
Not surprisingly, Draft Metrics found that a solid majority of drafted players come from the BSCAQ conferences. The chart to the right summarizes this finding.
As shown in the following table, the results vary somewhat when the source of drafted players is analyzed by playing position.
|
|
| QB |
RB |
WR |
TE |
OL |
DL |
LB |
DB |
K |
ALL |
| Total |
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| BCSAQ |
|
65.5% |
77.2% |
65.4% |
70.6% |
73.3% |
75.1% |
77.1% |
72.7% |
75.3% |
72.9% |
| BCSO |
|
20.7% |
13.0% |
17.7% |
15.8% |
15.1% |
12.0% |
13.2% |
14.2% |
16.9% |
14.6% |
| FCS |
|
8.5% |
6.8% |
10.1% |
8.9% |
7.6% |
7.5% |
6.1% |
8.2% |
5.6% |
7.8% |
| Other |
|
5.3% |
3.0% |
6.8% |
4.7% |
4.0% |
5.4% |
3.6% |
4.9% |
2.2% |
4.7% |
Analysis of BSCAQ Conferences
Draft Metrics next reviewed the performance of each of the BCSAQ conferences. Complete details are in the appendix to this article. Since the number of teams in the conferences varies from eight (Big East) to 12 (ACC, Big 12 and SEC), the following shows the average number of players drafted per team for each conference during the entire 20-year study period and for the last five years.
The Big East, of course, is the "poor cousin" in this analysis but its results were better in the last five years.
The differences among the conferences during the study period vary by playing position. Comments by playing position are as follows:
• Quarterbacks - PAC 10 was the top supplier of QBs with the Big 10 a distant second
• Running Backs - Big 10 and the SEC provided the most RBs
• Wide Receivers - The SEC was the clear leader followed by the Big 10 and PAC 10
• Tight Ends - The PAC 10 led the way, followed by the Big 10
• Offensive Line - Big 10 led by a fairly large margin, followed by the PAC 10
• Defensive Line - The SEC and the ACC were the dominant providers with the SEC having a fairly large lead
• Linebackers - The ACC is the leading provider, followed by Big 10 and the PAC 10
• Defensive Backs - PAC 10 and the ACC lead, followed closely by the SEC
Individual BCSAQ College Analysis
The BCSAQ Conferences include 65 schools, with three additional schools (Notre Dame, Army and Navy) included as independents. 10 schools provided almost 30% of all the players drafted from the 75 schools. The following table shows the top ten (eleven with ties where applicable) schools and the number of players drafted for the entire 20-year period and then in five-year increments.
| 1991-2010 |
| 2006-2010 |
| 2001-2005 |
| 1996-2000 |
| 1991-1995 |
| Miami (FL) |
117 |
|
USC |
44 |
|
Miami (FL) |
42 |
|
Tennessee |
34 |
|
Miami (FL) |
35 |
| Tennessee |
116 |
|
LSU |
31 |
|
Ohio State |
36 |
|
Florida State |
31 |
|
Colorado |
34 |
| Ohio State |
115 |
|
Ohio State |
31 |
|
Georgia |
32 |
|
Nebraska |
30 |
|
Florida State |
32 |
| Florida State |
114 |
|
Texas |
28 |
|
Florida State |
31 |
|
Florida |
28 |
|
Penn State |
32 |
| USC |
110 |
|
Florida |
26 |
|
Tennessee |
30 |
|
Ohio State |
25 |
|
Nebraska |
31 |
| Florida |
107 |
|
Georgia |
26 |
|
Florida |
28 |
|
Colorado |
24 |
|
Tennessee |
31 |
| Nebraska |
102 |
|
Virginia Tech |
26 |
|
Wisconsin |
26 |
|
Michigan |
23 |
|
Washington |
28 |
| Penn State |
94 |
|
Oklahoma |
25 |
|
Nebraska |
24 |
|
Arizona State |
22 |
|
Texas A&M |
26 |
| Michigan |
91 |
|
Penn State |
24 |
|
LSU |
22 |
|
Penn State |
22 |
|
USC |
26 |
| Georgia |
90 |
|
Miami (FL) |
22 |
|
Michigan |
22 |
|
Texas A&M |
22 |
|
Florida |
25 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Oklahoma |
22 |
|
|
|
|
Michigan |
25 |
Certain schools have developed a reputation for developing players at certain positions (e.g., Penn State referred to as "Linebacker U"). As shown in the appendix, Draft Metrics accumulated the players drafted by position at all BCSAQ colleges for the entire 20-year period to see if these perceptions are supported by reality.
| Quarterbacks |
| Running Backs |
| Wide Receivers |
| Tight Ends |
| USC |
9 |
|
Ohio State |
15 |
|
Florida |
21 |
|
Iowa |
9 |
| Oregon |
7 |
|
Penn State |
15 |
|
Florida State |
19 |
|
Notre Dame |
9 |
| Michigan |
7 |
|
Tennessee |
14 |
|
Miami (FL) |
19 |
|
Texas |
8 |
| Louisville |
6 |
|
USC |
12 |
|
Ohio State |
18 |
|
Virginia |
8 |
| Ohio State |
6 |
|
|
|
|
USC |
17 |
|
|
|
| Tennessee |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Tennessee |
16 |
|
|
|
| Offensive Line |
| Defensive Line |
| Linebackers |
| Defensive Backs |
| Notre Dame |
24 |
|
Florida State |
25 |
|
Florida State |
19 |
|
Nebraska |
26 |
| California |
19 |
|
Florida |
24 |
|
Nebraska |
19 |
|
Ohio State |
24 |
| Michigan |
19 |
|
Tennessee |
23 |
|
Ohio State |
19 |
|
Miami (FL) |
21 |
| Iowa |
17 |
|
Georgia |
21 |
|
Penn State |
18 |
|
Virginia Tech |
21 |
| Nebraska |
17 |
|
Miami (FL) |
20 |
|
USC |
17 |
|
Notre Dame |
20 |
| Penn State |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Washington |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BCSO and FCS Colleges
While far behind the BCSAQ conferences, the BSCO conferences also produce a significant number of draftees (about 38 per year during the 20-year period). Nine BCSO schools account for over 40% of those draftees. These schools (with the number of draftees in parentheses) are Brigham Young (40), Utah (40), Fresno State (39), San Diego State (37), Texas Christian (32), Southern Mississippi (30), Houston (27), East Carolina (25) and Hawaii (25).
FCS conferences produced about 20 draftees per year during the study period. The Draft Metrics analysis shows that eight schools are responsible for about a quarter of those draft choices. These schools are Jackson State (17), Grambling (14), Florida A&M (13), Hampton (13), Northwestern State (12), Tennessee State (11), Eastern Kentucky (10) and Southern (10).
Post-Draft Performance
Please also refer to the "Draftees by College" data base for more information on how the draftees actually performed. That data base will be updated and another article published once the 2010 season is completed.
Players Drafted by Teams Playing in Conferences with Automatic BCS Qualification:
| |
| Number Drafted By Position |
| By 5-Yr. Period |
| |
| QB |
RB |
WR |
TE |
OL |
DL |
LB |
DB |
K |
Total |
| 06-10 |
01-05 |
96-00 |
91-95 |
| Atlantic Coast Conference |
| Boston College |
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
40 |
|
11 |
8 |
12 |
9 |
| Clemson |
|
1 |
4 |
6 |
0 |
8 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
1 |
65 |
|
19 |
10 |
16 |
20 |
| Duke |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
|
0 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
| Florida State |
|
5 |
11 |
19 |
2 |
12 |
25 |
19 |
19 |
2 |
114 |
|
20 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
| Georgia Tech |
|
1 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
3 |
47 |
|
16 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
| Maryland |
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
40 |
|
13 |
13 |
7 |
7 |
| Miami (FL) |
|
5 |
11 |
19 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
21 |
1 |
117 |
|
22 |
42 |
18 |
35 |
| North Carolina |
|
0 |
6 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
19 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
68 |
|
10 |
17 |
21 |
20 |
| North Carolina State |
|
1 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
17 |
0 |
53 |
|
15 |
12 |
7 |
19 |
| Virginia |
|
4 |
10 |
5 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
64 |
|
15 |
14 |
19 |
16 |
| Virginia Tech |
|
3 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
21 |
1 |
75 |
|
26 |
21 |
17 |
11 |
| Wake Forest |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
23 |
|
12 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
| Total |
|
26 |
63 |
80 |
43 |
108 |
136 |
107 |
139 |
11 |
713 |
|
179 |
180 |
168 |
186 |
| Avg. Per School |
|
2.17 |
5.25 |
6.67 |
3.58 |
9.00 |
11.33 |
8.92 |
11.58 |
0.92 |
59.42 |
|
14.92 |
15.00 |
14.00 |
15.50 |
| Big Ten Conference |
| Illinois |
|
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
11 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
1 |
43 |
|
8 |
12 |
8 |
15 |
| Indiana |
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
25 |
|
7 |
3 |
5 |
10 |
| Iowa |
|
1 |
7 |
4 |
9 |
17 |
8 |
5 |
12 |
1 |
64 |
|
18 |
19 |
13 |
14 |
| Michigan |
|
7 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
19 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
2 |
91 |
|
21 |
22 |
23 |
25 |
| Michigan State |
|
4 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
9 |
13 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
65 |
|
11 |
15 |
17 |
22 |
| Minnesota |
|
0 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
28 |
|
8 |
10 |
6 |
4 |
| Northwestern |
|
1 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
30 |
|
6 |
9 |
9 |
6 |
| Ohio State |
|
6 |
15 |
18 |
3 |
13 |
14 |
19 |
24 |
3 |
115 |
|
31 |
36 |
25 |
23 |
| Penn State |
|
3 |
15 |
9 |
7 |
17 |
11 |
18 |
12 |
2 |
94 |
|
24 |
16 |
22 |
32 |
| Purdue |
|
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
13 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
44 |
|
13 |
18 |
8 |
5 |
| Wisconsin |
|
2 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
16 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
1 |
69 |
|
16 |
26 |
14 |
13 |
| Total |
|
30 |
81 |
78 |
42 |
131 |
96 |
91 |
104 |
15 |
668 |
|
163 |
186 |
150 |
169 |
| Avg. Per School |
|
2.73 |
7.36 |
7.09 |
3.82 |
11.91 |
8.73 |
8.27 |
9.45 |
1.36 |
60.73 |
|
14.82 |
16.91 |
13.64 |
15.36 |
| Big Twelve Conference |
| Baylor |
|
0 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
27 |
|
6 |
3 |
8 |
10 |
| Colorado |
|
2 |
6 |
10 |
4 |
15 |
11 |
14 |
16 |
2 |
80 |
|
9 |
13 |
24 |
34 |
| Iowa State |
|
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
17 |
|
5 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
| Kansas |
|
0 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
0 |
28 |
|
7 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
| Kansas State |
|
3 |
4 |
9 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
11 |
1 |
49 |
|
8 |
19 |
15 |
7 |
| Missouri |
|
0 |
3 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
10 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
30 |
|
12 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
| Nebraska |
|
1 |
11 |
3 |
3 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
26 |
3 |
102 |
|
17 |
24 |
30 |
31 |
| Oklahoma |
|
2 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
82 |
|
25 |
22 |
17 |
18 |
| Oklahoma State |
|
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
27 |
|
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
| Texas |
|
3 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
13 |
18 |
7 |
16 |
0 |
77 |
|
28 |
16 |
13 |
20 |
| Texas A&M |
|
3 |
9 |
8 |
4 |
15 |
14 |
8 |
14 |
1 |
76 |
|
10 |
18 |
22 |
26 |
| Texas Tech |
|
2 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
9 |
0 |
32 |
|
9 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
| Total |
|
19 |
59 |
67 |
38 |
107 |
116 |
84 |
129 |
8 |
627 |
|
144 |
148 |
159 |
176 |
| Avg. Per School |
|
1.58 |
4.92 |
5.58 |
3.17 |
8.92 |
9.67 |
7.00 |
10.75 |
0.67 |
52.25 |
|
12.00 |
12.33 |
13.25 |
14.67 |
| Big East Conference |
| Cincinnati |
|
0 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
12 |
1 |
31 |
|
12 |
8 |
8 |
3 |
| Connecticut |
|
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
13 |
|
9 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
| Louisville |
|
6 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
45 |
|
16 |
12 |
8 |
9 |
| Pittsburgh |
|
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
2 |
46 |
|
14 |
14 |
4 |
14 |
| Rutgers |
|
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
22 |
|
13 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
| South Florida |
|
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
16 |
|
9 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
| Syracuse |
|
1 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
8 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
1 |
45 |
|
10 |
12 |
13 |
0 |
| West Virginia |
|
2 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
39 |
|
8 |
6 |
17 |
8 |
| Total |
|
14 |
27 |
31 |
14 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
57 |
8 |
257 |
|
91 |
65 |
52 |
49 |
| Avg. Per School |
|
1.75 |
3.38 |
3.88 |
1.75 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.25 |
7.13 |
1.00 |
32.13 |
|
11.38 |
8.13 |
6.50 |
6.13 |
| Pac-10 Conference |
| Arizona |
|
0 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
2 |
50 |
|
13 |
5 |
16 |
16 |
| Arizona State |
|
3 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
14 |
0 |
73 |
|
15 |
15 |
22 |
21 |
| California |
|
5 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
19 |
12 |
5 |
11 |
3 |
74 |
|
19 |
15 |
20 |
20 |
| Oregon |
|
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
9 |
2 |
15 |
1 |
57 |
|
19 |
16 |
13 |
9 |
| Oregon State |
|
2 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
35 |
|
14 |
15 |
4 |
2 |
| Stanford |
|
4 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
0 |
59 |
|
10 |
21 |
12 |
16 |
| UCLA |
|
2 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
16 |
1 |
60 |
|
10 |
17 |
11 |
22 |
| USC |
|
9 |
12 |
17 |
7 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
2 |
110 |
|
44 |
19 |
21 |
26 |
| Washington |
|
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
17 |
6 |
13 |
7 |
0 |
67 |
|
5 |
14 |
20 |
28 |
| Washington State |
|
3 |
1 |
6 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
1 |
37 |
|
5 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
| Total |
|
40 |
61 |
71 |
45 |
105 |
89 |
83 |
118 |
10 |
622 |
|
154 |
148 |
149 |
171 |
| Avg. Per School |
|
4.00 |
6.10 |
7.10 |
4.50 |
10.50 |
8.90 |
8.30 |
11.80 |
1.00 |
62.20 |
|
15.40 |
14.80 |
14.90 |
17.10 |
| Southeastern Conference |
| Alabama |
|
2 |
10 |
6 |
4 |
9 |
19 |
11 |
17 |
1 |
79 |
|
19 |
20 |
16 |
24 |
| Arkansas |
|
0 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
9 |
10 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
41 |
|
13 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
| Auburn |
|
1 |
11 |
7 |
1 |
15 |
15 |
6 |
10 |
0 |
66 |
|
19 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
| Florida |
|
4 |
6 |
21 |
5 |
13 |
24 |
15 |
18 |
1 |
107 |
|
26 |
28 |
28 |
25 |
| Georgia |
|
5 |
11 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
21 |
14 |
14 |
3 |
90 |
|
26 |
32 |
20 |
12 |
| Kentucky |
|
2 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
34 |
|
8 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
| Louisiana State |
|
5 |
9 |
13 |
5 |
10 |
18 |
2 |
12 |
2 |
76 |
|
31 |
22 |
14 |
9 |
| Mississippi |
|
1 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
12 |
8 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
43 |
|
11 |
12 |
7 |
13 |
| Mississippi State |
|
0 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
12 |
6 |
4 |
0 |
44 |
|
4 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
| South Carolina |
|
0 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
1 |
45 |
|
14 |
14 |
8 |
9 |
| Tennessee |
|
6 |
14 |
16 |
3 |
16 |
23 |
16 |
19 |
3 |
116 |
|
21 |
30 |
34 |
31 |
| Vanderbilt |
|
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
20 |
|
7 |
7 |
5 |
1 |
| Total |
|
27 |
87 |
95 |
31 |
116 |
164 |
96 |
132 |
13 |
761 |
|
199 |
210 |
181 |
171 |
| Avg. Per School |
|
2.25 |
7.25 |
7.92 |
2.58 |
9.67 |
13.67 |
8.00 |
11.00 |
1.08 |
63.42 |
|
16.58 |
17.50 |
15.08 |
14.25 |
| Independents |
| Army |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| Navy |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
| Notre Dame |
|
4 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
24 |
12 |
14 |
20 |
2 |
105 |
|
19 |
26 |
18 |
42 |
| Total |
|
5 |
9 |
11 |
10 |
25 |
13 |
14 |
21 |
2 |
110 |
|
20 |
26 |
19 |
45 |
| |
| BCSAQ |
|
161 |
387 |
433 |
223 |
628 |
650 |
509 |
700 |
67 |
3758 |
|
950 |
963 |
878 |
967 |
| BCSO |
|
51 |
65 |
50 |
117 |
129 |
104 |
87 |
137 |
15 |
755 |
|
199 |
201 |
180 |
175 |
| FCS |
|
21 |
34 |
28 |
67 |
65 |
65 |
40 |
79 |
5 |
404 |
|
85 |
77 |
115 |
127 |
| Other |
|
13 |
15 |
15 |
45 |
34 |
47 |
24 |
47 |
2 |
242 |
|
39 |
40 |
67 |
96 |
| Total |
|
246 |
501 |
526 |
452 |
856 |
866 |
660 |
963 |
89 |
5159 |
|
1273 |
1281 |
1240 |
1365 |
Note: This article was originally published on Tony Villiotti's website, DraftMetrics.com and is being reprinted here with the permission of the author.
Draft Metrics was established in 2010 but its roots were planted long before. Villiotti's obsession with the NFL Draft began in 1969.
Over the years, his interest shifted from predicting draft choices to trying to better understand the draft's importance by examining its eventual outcomes.
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